Speaker - Mr. P. V. Navalkar
Senior Engineer,
TCE Consulting Engineers Ltd.

Topic -LOAD FORECAST FOR KARNATAKA

Venue - Room no. 201, 1st floor, Mechanical Engg. Deptt., IIT Bombay.
Date and Time - 31st March,2004 (Wednesday), 3.00 - 4:00 p.m.

Abstract (main points) -

This presentation covers the Load Forecast for ten years from 2000-01 to 2010-11 for the state of Karnataka. The methodology used for the forecast in this study is a combination of methods of Partial End Use Analysis and Trend Analysis. For the Industrial and Commercial sectors, econometric analysis is used to arrive at the forecast figures. The steps followed in arriving at the forecast figures are briefly outlined in the next paragraph.

  1. Collection of historical data for number of consumers, consumption, connected load etc.
  2. Establishing the energy balance for the base year.
  3. Disaggregation of the metered consumers into categories and fixing of the explanatory variables for each category.
  4. Analysing the results of consumption studies for unmetered consumers carried out by other agencies.
  5. Development and analysis of scenarios to examine the impact of variation of the variables.

The impact of electricity price changes and income on electricity demand is also analysed. The econometric analysis shows that although income is elastic (>1) the price is inelastic (<1). The income elasticity is 1.26 implying that for a 1 % increase in the per capita income, the electricity consumption rises by 1.26 % on a per capita basis. The short run price elasticity is -0.57. DSM options are identified for each category/ sector. The options are analysed with respect to the payback period and the Cost of Saved Energy (CSE). The DSM options and the savings are used to generate a least cost curve. The consumption of electricity which was 17451 MUs in 2000-01 is projected to be in the range of 26623 to 32318 MUs for the low growth and high growth scenarios respectively, in the terminal year of the forecast i.e. 2010-11.

About the Speaker-

Mr. Navalkar is the alumini of IIT Bombay. He received his M. Tech degree in Energy System Engineering, IIT Bombay in the year 1994. Thereafter, he worked in Crompten Greaves for 2yrs as design engineer and then joined TCE Consulting Engineers and is associated with it till date.